The Twister has Passed, Time to Climb Out of from Under the Trailer Dorethy (which was ORGN Financed)?

For anyone dreaming along with the securities markets, this last month has been like a 20,000,000 car pile up at 12 miles per hour, with the radio playing the creepy song Peace Frog by The Doors on high:

There's blood in the streets, it's up to my ankles
She came Blood in the streets, it's up to my knee
She came Blood in the streets in the town of Chicago
She came Blood on the rise, it's following me

Here we are, with the Dow down over 2,000 points and not really bounced back since I started writing this. The market for fixed income is still soaked like some underwater parish in New Orleans a few years back, and reports are that poorly rated paper can not even be priced. So after a twister, it can pay to pick among the rubble at the trailer park. Origen Financial Symbol: ORGN, Chart, finances manufactured homes, and is trading low enough to kick off 10+ percent yield.

It's having trouble in the current fixed income market selling off it's chattle loan paper because the likes of AMBAC and MBIA are facing the doubts and fears of buyers of such securitized paper; but it's underlying business appears strong. AMBAC's kiss gave ORGN a AAA rating last fall, and the company feels that belt and suspenders approach is vital to avoid the Rodney Dangerfield effect for their paper in the market.

Nevermind that defaults on manufactured homes for 2006 were just .04, which is in the range of municipals issuer defaults. Nevermind that a greater number of defaults could lead to more demand for the manufactured housing that ORGN kicks out so well. Nevermind that Warren Buffet made public his offer to re-insure the insured municipal bond portfolios of the leading major insurers who are facing problems now (before doing his classic GEICO move on one of the safest insurance markets out there. Nevermind this ORGN's corner of the securitized debt world, (which is unique and attractive for purposes of diversification) is as likely to be sorted out, good from the bad, as the Marti Gras coming around next year.

Nevermind that the company's insiders are self financing at this point, showing currage of convictions (and an indication that the company could be worth taking private, as was reported by CPA, Patrick Harden in "Seeking Alpha" on Jan. 20, 2008). Nevermind all that and you may not see much worth buying, in spite of the ten percent return. It's not like setting a stop loss order at around 2,90 for the 3 dollar stub will guarantee you a sale at that price if the company goes out of business.

I am not even sure if it's a safe move to go long a company like ORGN, and collecting that TGTBT yield, and shorting something similar (in housing, such as MHO, or the .61 cent per share, Dominion Homes, DHOM, each with over negative 70 million in net revenues, or even going long in equal measure an index that shorts real estate, such as SRS or even SRA call options), but that appears to be in a more precarious way, even if in the same neighborhood. Not safe, that is, compared to say, buying Buffet's B Bershares, as he gobbles up all prime cuts of the slaughtered bull. I am not sure, but have a few ideas.