The Yield Hoe's Notebook

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

What does it matter what you say about people?

It just does not matter. This market, and these money talking heads have me thinking of an old Joni Mitchell album with some of the best modern Jazz musicians of the day on it (1980s)-- I think it was Weather Report with the late great Jaco Pastorias on a buck wild bass.

Anyway, it was a live album, and she played a clip from a movie, the weepy 60s psychodrama, "Rebel without a Cause", where a guy repeats: "Doesn't matter, doesn't matter, doesn't matter..." over and over. While the movie was out of my depths, the Joni Mitchell concert album just rocks like the USA.

And it's exactly what this market has had me thinking all week.

Future cash flows and growth rates of companies? Just don't matter. Fundamentals are beside the point. Discounted future earnings are of no use. Management and their statements of risk factors, you guessed it, doesn't matter. Low debt to equity, or Debt to cash on hand? Right-- doesn't matter. Company makes booze, or electricity, or things that are recession proof? Doesn't. Matter. Period.



Securities are priced for the end of days, as McCain and Obama are poised to face off in a race to see who will be the FDR style cleanup shop steward. No matter what the government does, everyone is moving to cash, which is odd. After all, if you don't trust government solutions, why would you buy its Bills, Notes and Bonds?

Better to pick up a few religious texts, a shotgun and some canned goods, no?

Apparently, terrorism and natural disasters have not produced enough suffering for American. Now we are gearing up to suffer the wages of those good intentions of our chosen leaders, their appointees and a few guys hustling massive pay days at Fanny-Freddie Mac-Mae.

Nevertheless, it's time like these that makes the mouths of Yield Hoes everywhere drool, like cab drivers on a rainy days, as they look to their stock screens. An so we move on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly to high yields, low P/Es, low PEG ratios, and low debt to equity and cash on hand, in lines of business that are not in danger of going extinct, even if man does first. High yields are everywhere. It's enough to make you want to think about dollar cost averaging back into the market with some of these low flying money machines at levels almost TGTBT.

So let's see what does not matter today, after the Dow next sickening leg down today:

Suburban Propane, SPH, yields 9.90%, P/E is 7.15 and it's PEG is low at .86. Meanwhile, it's debt is in the 500 million range, which is about 5 times its cash on hand at 180 million. That's .21 cash on hand to debt. SPH is cratered down from 45 last November to the 30 range today.

Or take the micro cap company, Primemedia, PRM, with ratios that are TGTBT. It won't cost much at $1.98 per share, and assuming it can maintain its listing requirements it could yield you more than 12% as you wait to see if the apartment and new home advertising business disappears from the American economy for good. I know, it's an open question, like will the sun come out tomorrow, or who will be president of the United States (not if there will be one mind you). PRM's P/E ratio is .22 (no, that's not a typo); and it's PEG is just .32, which suggests really TGTBTly good amount of growth for the price of its earnings. Yes, they have over 250 million in debt to 6 million cash on hand, but where are the worts? JP Morgan analyst, who has the highest New Star rating (for being right), just upgraded PRM. Hey, it's 2 dollars per share; if they make more money from more real estate listings, maybe it heads back to the 10 to 15 dollar range sooner than later.

But there again, "it doesn't matter, doesn't matter, doesn't matter, doesn't matter"...( by the way, that album with the weepy James Dean on it is "Shadows and Light" by Joni Mitchell, and it has major WOW-factor musicianship on it.)


Now hear this; because it's a good time to listen to Black Friday by Steely Dan:

Labels: ,

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home