The Yield Hoe's Notebook

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

NEW is down a bit, while the overall market is down a lot

NEW has a P/E of 2.27 today, and based on reliable research, NEW appears likely to continue to kick off at least 10 percent, after they they cut the dividend and it reaches equilibrium with the falling price of the stock. That same research indicates that NEW's portfolio of subprime debt amounts to half their portfolio.

The media has been talking about the subprime market all week long, advancing the theory that it will spread to mortgages done the regular way. Retired Fed Chairman Greenspan made the comment that the US could be headed for recession, and today they Chinese A share market (more highly speculative market) fell out, which lead to a broad market decline, as program trades hit stop after stop. It was a 400 point decline on Dow 12,000, which amounts to a nip compared to Dow 1000, but still a sizable move.

The quick glance at the portfolio of high yield stocks we track shows that they hold up well under current market conditions. Low Betas, mean they have the advantage of being out of step with broad declines.

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